Patriots vs Bills Odds, Picks and Predictions

The story of this third version of Patriots-Bills appears destined to give attention to the cold-weather circumstances, however it might be a mistake to provide it an excessive amount of weight. We clarify why Buffalo will overcome the frigidity to hit the Over in our Wild Card betting picks.

A rivalry so good, they’ve obtained to play it thrice.

The New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills get a rubber match within the AFC Wild Card Round after these divisional foes break up their regular-season collection – thanks partially to the wild winds of Orchard Park in Week 13, which helped New England grind out a 14-10 win. The Bills returned serve with a powerful 33-21 victory in Foxborough 20 days later.

A grudge match this bitter requires a complementary local weather with temperatures feeling like -4 levels in Buffalo Saturday evening. Here are our free NFL betting picks and predictions for Patriots at Bills on January 15. 

Patriots vs Bills odds

Odds by way of the Covers Line, a mean comprised of odds from a number of sportsbooks.

Buffalo opened between -4 and -4.5 on Sunday evening as soon as AFC Wild Card Round matchups had been set and most books have settled on the Bills as 4-point house chalk, nevertheless, some books are dealing Buffalo -3.5 flat. This complete opened at 43.5 factors and has ticked down barely to 43 factors as of Tuesday morning.

Use the dwell odds widget above to trace any future line actions proper up till kickoff and you should definitely try the complete NFL odds earlier than inserting your bets.

Patriots vs Bills predictions

Predictions made on 1/11/2022 at 12:15 p.m. ET.
Click on every prediction to leap to the complete evaluation.

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Patriots vs Bills sport data

Location: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
Date: Saturday, January 15, 2022
Time: 8:15 p.m. ET

Patriots at Bills betting preview


Monitor gametime circumstances with our dwell NFL climate data and find out how climate impacts NFL betting.

Key accidents

Patriots: David Andrews C (Questionable), Christian Barmore DT (Questionable), Jamie Collins LB (Questionable), Cody Davis S (Questionable), Nick Folk Ok (Questionable), Lawrence Guy DT (Questionable), Damien Harris RB (Questionable), Dont’a Hightower LB (Questionable), Jakobi Meyers WR (Questionable), Adrian Phillips S (Questionable), Isaiah Wynn T (Out).
Bills: No accidents to report.
Find our newest NFL harm experiences.

Betting pattern to know

The Over is 9-4 within the Patriots’ final 13 video games general. Find extra NFL betting traits for Patriots vs. Bills.

Patriots vs Bills picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the evaluation of the unfold and complete and are indications of the place we’re leaning for this sport.
Our finest wager is the play that we like probably the most for this sport, which we might really put a few of our bankroll behind.

The Bills had been jacked up on vengeance after they rolled into Gillette Stadium just a few weeks again, nonetheless stinging from an embarrassing loss to New England at house in Week 13. 

In that first assembly, the Patriots determined to go on passing in these brisk breezes and pushed the Buffalo protection round on the bottom at will. In the follow-up sport, the Bills got here out weapons blazing, rolled the cube on fourth down early on, and put the Patriots on their heels, ultimately successful 33-21 as a 1-point street underdog.

That would be the plan of assault for the Wild Card Round as nicely, with the Bills’ potent passing sport not operating towards the wind “Bob Seger style” and maybe not dealing with the identical stingy protection that obtained New England to the match. 

The Patriots cease unit has slipped within the house stretch of the season, exposing the smooth gooey center of the schedule the place New England took benefit of some less-than-stellar opposition and strung collectively seven straight wins. 

Ever since that Week 13 win at Buffalo, the Pats protection has allowed practically 26 factors per outing within the closing 4 video games and ranks twentieth in EPA allowed per play (0.062) in that span, most notably getting picked aside by the go (permitting a 49.2% success price per dropback). 

If Josh Allen can discover that very same early-game engine that put the Bills up huge in Week 16, New England will as soon as once more must dial down the run calls and put weight on the arm of rookie quarterback Mac Jones – not one of the best plan of assault contemplating the historical past of first-year passers within the NFL Playoffs (rookie QBs simply 2-9 SU in playoffs since 2010).

You hate to promote Bill Belichick brief within the postseason, however with New England backing into the Wild Card Round – shedding three of its final 4 video games – and Buffalo using a four-game win streak (3-0-1 ATS), we’ll go together with the recent workforce at house within the brutal chilly.

Prediction: Buffalo -3.5 (-110)

Covers NFL betting evaluation

I featured this Over/Under in my “Bet Now/Bet Later” strains for the Wild Card Round, telling bettors to place a pin on enjoying the Over immediately as this quantity was certain to slim later within the week. And we’ve began to see this transfer, with the overall trimming from 43.5 to 42.5 factors as of Tuesday morning.

Even with Buffalo dropping 33 factors on New England in Foxborough and the Patriots protection exhibiting cracks, this complete hit the board means too low and is a fair higher reward now that it’s dropped to beneath 43 factors. That brutal chilly could make the hits damage slightly extra, however the winds are going to be very tame and there’s no rain or snow exhibiting up Saturday evening.

Buffalo has scored not less than 27 factors in 5 straight video games and can do the lion’s share of the scoring Saturday, which implies we’re not asking for a lot from the Patriots offense. New England managed not less than 17 factors in these closing 4 video games – together with a 50 burger served to the Jaguars – and that’s all we’ll must get this closing rating Over the overall.

Prediction: Over 42.5 (-115)

For some motive, bettors nonetheless can’t shake that Week 13 wind-altered end result from their heads and with the forecast calling for dangerously chilly temperatures on Saturday evening, the thoughts drifts to the Under. But in the event you take a look at the totals set for the previous two conferences between the Pats and Bills, we see openers within the 45 and 44.5-point vary.

The Bills offense wobbled a bit between Week 9 and Week 13 however snapped out of that funk, beginning with a near-comeback versus Tampa Bay in Week 14. Since then, this assault sits No. 7 in EPA per play (+0.115) and is getting nice manufacturing on the bottom and thru the air. 

New England has fallen behind shortly in its previous three losses, getting outscored by a mixed 35-0 within the first quarter, and the Bills will come out swinging to set the tone for the Over on Saturday evening. Buffalo holds a 1Q fringe of 31-2 over its earlier three outings.

Pick: Over 42.5 (-115)

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